🧭 Market Storyline
What changed this week and why it matters
Beef input costs
409.2
13.9%
PPI: Beef and Veal Products (NSA) for 2025-09-01 points to higher wholesale pressure.
Commercial margins
$1,458,847
0.3%
2023 gross cash farm income per commercial farm.
Balance sheet risk
6.4%
-12.3%
2023 national debt/asset ratio.
Slaughter headcount
943
-97.9%
Daily Slaughter report dated 2025-11-25.
🌐 National & Global Signals
FRED series monitored by the agents
Beef & Veal Producer Prices
409.17
13.9%
Meat Import Price Index
411.1
-2.4%
Beef Processing Output
101.47
1.7%
💰 Farm Financial Health
ERS ARMS metrics
Commercial Farm Cash Income
1458847
0.3%
Debt / Asset Ratio
6.0
-12.3%
🚚 USDA Market News Pulse
Headcount + boxed beef
Daily Slaughter
943.0
-97.9%
❓ Questions We Answered
Agent-ready narratives grounded in today’s data
Should we lock beef supply prices early?
The Beef & Veal PPI sits at 409.2 (13.9% vs prior month). That momentum suggests hedging feedlot sales or negotiating forward pricing now.
Sources: PPI: Beef and Veal Products (NSA)
Are commercial cow-calf margins improving?
ERS shows commercial farms averaging $1,458,847 (0.3% vs prior year). Use stronger cash flow to retire short-term debt or pre-buy feed while pricing is favorable.
Sources: ERS ARMS
Are supplies tightening headed into winter?
LMR headcounts printed 943 head (-97.9% vs prior reading). Smaller runs typically support higher cash bids for finished cattle—plan sales accordingly.
Sources: USDA Market News
📈 Decision Demand Forecast
Where agents expect question load
Feed & Water Logistics
Rain 0.75" vs ET₀ 0.51"
- Next 5 days only 0.00" expected
- Moisture near balance
Forecast hay and water needs for the next 2 weeks.
Hay Procurement
$91 / bale (South TX)
- 4 price points from latest AMS report
- Delivered loads trending higher
Decide whether to buy now or wait for next report.
Capital & Risk Planning
6.4% debt/asset
- 2023 national ARMS reading
- Change vs prior year: -12.3%
Review loan covenants and cash buffer needs.
Market Timing
943 head
- 5 Area Daily Weighted Average Direct Slaughter Cattle - Negotiated (PDF) (LM_CT100)
- Change: None
Plan sales around tighter or looser packer demand.